Project H094
 Analysis of Historical Emission Changes to Inform New Emission Projection Analyses

Project Period:06/23/2008 - 03/31/2009
Total Budget:$100,000
Sub-Contractors:E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.

Select Related Documents
Executive Summary
Adobe PDF Adobe PDF (28 KB)
Final Report
Adobe PDF Adobe PDF (920 KB)
Review of TCEQ Emission Projection Methods
Adobe PDF Adobe PDF (401 KB)
The TERC Strategic Research Plan for 2007-2009 acknowledges that complete and accurate emission inventories are essential to analyze and comprehend the wealth of data and information collected during the recent Texas Air Quality Study II (TexAQS II).  This was one of the critical lessons learned in the original TexAQS 2000 field study.  

The Strategic Research Plan recommendations also state that attention should be devoted to appropriate forecasting techniques for various inventory sources, in order to grow the base emission inventory to the SIP attainment demonstration year.  Different source categories will require different forecasting techniques.  Currently, there are some areas of emissions forecasting documentation where additional detail or clarification may be useful.

This project will evaluate recent historical emissions and air pollution-related activity information for priority source categories in the State of Texas to determine the primary factors influencing emission changes in this period (1990 to 2005, or the equivalent), and to use this information to develop improved emission forecasts for future years. This proposed project directly addresses the Strategic Research Plan need to improve forecasting methods and provide improved documentation of those methods. The initial project task will be to identify the historical years and source categories available to be analyzed. Key databases for point sources will be the calendar years for which TCEQ staff collected source-specific information and compiled statewide emission inventories (nonattainment area-level emission inventories will also be used if comparable data sets were available for a series of historical years). The information available in emission databases will be supplemented with other government or industry data sources and research studies, where needed and appropriate.

A review will be performed of the current methods TCEQ uses to project emissions for all major source sectors. Information on current methods will be obtained from documentation/contracts identified by TCEQ. Depending on how different the projection methods are by source category, it may be necessary to focus the review effort on the major-emitting source categories within each sector.

Key point source categories that would be expected to be included in the study scope are: Petroleum refining, chemical manufacturing (need to break down into industry sub groups), electricity generating units, and cement manufacturing. To the extent possible, the analysis will be based on emission estimates and activity information (in SCC units) from TCEQ point source data files.

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